Understanding the Sudan Crisis: Conflict, Humanitarian Collapse, and Regional Implications

Sudan Crisis: Conflict, Humanitarian Collapse, and Regional Implications

1. What is happening in Sudan?

Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war since April 2023 between two rival military factions:

• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
• Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti)

The conflict has resulted in mass killings, displacement of over 13 million people, and widespread humanitarian collapse, particularly in cities like Khartoum and Darfur.

2. Why did this civil war start?

The war began after power-sharing talks between SAF and RSF broke down. Key factors include:

• Struggle for military and political control after the 2019 ousting of dictator Omar al-Bashir
• Delayed integration of RSF into the national army, heightening tensions
• Foreign involvement, e.g., UAE support for RSF, further destabilizing the situation

3. Humanitarian and economic impact within Sudan

• Over 15,000 deaths, millions displaced and facing starvation
• Collapse of basic infrastructure: health, education, and water supply
• Rise of black market economy, arms smuggling, and food scarcity
• Risk of national fragmentation into separate power zones without central authority

4. Regional geopolitical implications

• Red Sea instability, threatening maritime security and trade routes
• Refugee overflow into neighboring countries like Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt
• Resurgence of extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates due to power vacuums
• Competition among UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Russia for influence, especially around gold mining and port access

5. Economic and strategic stakes for India

• Diaspora risk: Thousands of Indian citizens and OCI cardholders reside in Sudan; Operation Kaveri in 2023 evacuated over 3,000 people
• Energy security: Proximity to South Sudan’s oil-rich regions; instability may affect India’s energy investments
• Geoeconomic access: Stable Horn of Africa is vital for Indian trade routes via the Suez Canal
• Peacekeeping and diplomacy: India’s UN peacekeeping role in Darfur and potential mediator status enhance its African diplomatic profile

6. Strategic options for India

• Strengthen humanitarian aid via the African Union and United Nations
• Enhance naval presence in the Western Indian Ocean to secure Red Sea trade corridors
• Reinforce African diplomacy, including capacity-building support and initiatives like ITEC and Pan-African e-Network
• Protect investments and expand East African ties to counterbalance China’s influence

SYNOPSIS

Sudan’s ongoing civil war, marked by intense military rivalry, has pushed the country toward collapse, causing a severe humanitarian crisis. The conflict also has broader regional and global implications, particularly for security and trade through the Red Sea. For India, the crisis underscores the importance of strategic engagement in Africa to protect its diaspora, safeguard investments, maintain maritime security, and enhance diplomatic influence.