India-China Geopolitical Tensions in 2025

1. What are the main geopolitical tensions between India and China in 2025?

• China-Pakistan-Bangladesh Trilateral Attempt: On June 19, 2025, China held a meeting in Kunming with Pakistan and Bangladesh proposing a new trilateral grouping. While Bangladesh has not agreed yet, this indicates China’s attempt to form parallel regional blocs excluding India.
• Dalai Lama Issue: China seeks control over the succession of the Dalai Lama, challenging India’s traditional role in hosting the Tibetan leadership.

2. Is China supporting Pakistan against India?

Yes. During Operation Sindoor, China’s support to Pakistan was extensive, particularly in surveillance, logistics, and political coordination.

3. How is China trying to influence India’s neighbourhood?

• Assisting Bangladesh in reviving a WWII airbase at Lalmonirhat, close to the Siliguri Corridor — a strategic chokepoint for India.
• Investing in infrastructure and diplomacy to expand its footprint in South Asia, often bypassing India.

4. What is China doing near India’s borders?

• Renaming locations in Arunachal Pradesh with Mandarin names, signalling territorial claims.
• Planning its largest dam on the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) in Tibet, near the Indian border, raising concerns about water security in Northeast India.

5. How is China leveraging trade against India?

Despite border tensions, trade continues, with China enjoying a large trade surplus. It is leveraging this by:

• Squeezing supply chains of rare earths, Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), and fertilizers.
• Controlling exports of tunnel boring machines and technical personnel, vital for India’s infrastructure and pharmaceutical sectors.

6. What role are the US and EU playing in this situation?

• India faces trade and geopolitical pressure from the US and EU on issues such as tariffs, digital rules, and global alignment.
• This external pressure has created space for China to reassert itself in India’s immediate neighbourhood and trade circuits.