Exploring the Decline in Rural Fertility Rates in India

rural Fertility rate decline in India

1. What is Fertility Rate?

Fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime. A rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered the replacement level, where births balance deaths and the population remains stable.

2. What Does the Data Show?

• Rural India’s fertility rate has dropped to 2.1 for the first time.
• India’s overall fertility rate declined further to 1.9, below replacement level.
• urban areas recorded an even lower fertility rate of 1.5 in 2023.

3. Basic Trends

• Rural TFR: 2.2 (2020–22) → 2.1 in 2023.
• Urban TFR: 1.6 (2020–22) → 1.5 in 2023.
• Crude Death Rate (CDR): 6.4 deaths per 1,000 people (2023).
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR): 19.1 (2022) → 18.4 (2023).

4. Examples from Data

• Rural birth rate fell to 20.3 per thousand in 2023 (from 20.8).
• Urban birth rate declined to 14.9 (from 15.5).
• Death rate peaked at 7.5 in 2021 during the pandemic (~2 million excess deaths).

5. Reasons for Decline

• Better healthcare and family planning access.
• Increase in women’s education and awareness.
• Urbanisation and lifestyle changes reducing family size preference.
• Economic pressure discouraging large families.

6. Implications

• Population Stabilisation: Rural India now touches replacement level.
• Ageing Population: May lead to shrinking workforce.
• Rural–Urban Divide: Rural at replacement, urban below.
• Policy Needs: Healthcare, pensions, labour reforms essential.

7. International Context

• Countries like Japan, Italy, and South Korea have fertility rates far below 2.1.
• India’s decline aligns with global demographic patterns, though its large youth base still provides a demographic dividend.

8. Example for Civil Services Aspirants

If a rural woman in 1995 typically had 4 children, by 2023 she has only 2. This highlights the role of social change, migration, and education in reshaping family planning.

FAQs

1. Why is 2.1 considered the replacement fertility rate?
It balances births and deaths, ensuring stable population without migration.

2. How does the decline affect India’s economy?
Initially positive (better resources per person), but ageing may strain pensions, healthcare, and workforce.

3. Why do urban areas have lower fertility than rural areas?
Urbanisation, education, jobs, delayed marriages, and cost of living reduce family size preference.

4. Is India’s population shrinking?
Not yet — it is still growing due to a large youth base, though growth is slowing.

5. How will this change governance and policy?
Focus will shift from population control to elderly care, skill development, and productivity improvements.